Blog 28.10.2020

Labour market and the second wave of the pandemic

Statistical surveys conducted in September 2020 clearly indicate a downturn in almost all surveyed sectors. Both in the short and long term, the economic decline will also bring about significant changes in the labour market.

Catering sector most affected

While about 60% of companies in the industrial processing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage sectors report the negative effects of the pandemic on their companies as insignificant, as much as 43% of companies dealing with accommodation and catering describe them as serious. As many as 17% of entrepreneurs from this industry describe their situation as a threat to the stability of the company, which does not sound good. Moreover, only 6% of them have not benefited from any form of assistance under the Anti-Crisis Shield.

In these market sectors, the majority of employees did not take advantage of remote working. The exception is the wholesale trade, where more than 22% of employees worked online. In addition, companies from all the analysed industries have recorded a decline in orders – both orders placed by them and their customers. The situation was again the worst in the area of accommodation and catering, which in September recorded a drop of over 20% in sales.

Limited time to survive

All these numbers don’t look good, but they are not terrifying. The situation is quite different if you look at the entrepreneurs’ estimates of the amount of time they can survive on the market with the current restrictions (without even assuming another lockdown). About half of entrepreneurs from the industrial processing, wholesale and retail trade, transport and warehouse management sectors forecast over 6 months of business operation. About 20% of them will survive in the current conditions for only 4-6 months, while 14-18% of all the businesses listed have 2-3 months left, apart from the construction industry, where more than 30% of businesses estimate such a short period of operation.

Again, the worst forecasts in this area are for the accommodation and catering sectors, where over 85% of companies will not survive until spring (they will be able to operate for 2-6 months). It is estimated that the second wave will be survived by only 11% of entrepreneurs from this sector. The numbers speak for themselves and probably don’t even need commenting on. The situation is very serious.

The labour market and the struggle for company survival

The second wave of the pandemic not only continues, but even intensifies. It can be assumed that the restrictions will not be stopped for months to come. The pandemic is becoming more and more dangerous for the lives of Poles, but also for the economy and the labour market, which will consequently suffer. Taking into account the statistics and forecasts made by companies, a huge number of companies will disappear in the coming months, and consequently a frightening number of employees will lose their jobs.

The great unknown

We can analyse the statistics, add, subtract, multiply and divide the numbers in any way, and yet we can’t predict the actual developments. Expect a difficult time, which not everyone will survive. There is no universal solution for such a difficult situation, however, there are solutions that can help reduce the costs of retaining employees, which are not insignificant. Especially bigger entrepreneurs should consider outsourcing employees, which may prove to be a very good solution for the crisis. On the other hand, it is also helpful for people who will be looking for a job, because of the wider searching possibilities.

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